(SQAUK) — The European Space Agency (ESA) has issued an alarming alert: four asteroids with a ‘non-zero impact probability’ pose a collision threat with Earth. These celestial objects, identified as 2016 NP56, 2014 JV79, 2022 YO1, and 2013 YB, are causing serious concern due to the potential for devastating consequences for our planet.

The asteroids on a collision path

1. 2016 NP56

• Diameter: Approximately 30 meters
• Impact date: September 30, 2024
• Probability of impact: 1 in 1,500

The European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC) has identified 2016 NP56 as a significant threat. This apartment-building-sized asteroid has the potential to release energy equivalent to multiple atomic bombs upon impact. With an impact probability of 1 in 1,500, the potential for widespread destruction is alarming.

2. 2014 JV79

• Diameter: Approximately 50 meters
• Impact date: November 14, 2024
• Probability of impact: 1 in 4,000

Asteroid 2014 JV79 is a giant rock about 50 meters across. If it hits Earth, it could cause tsunamis and abrupt weather changes. According to ESA’s calculations, there is a 1 in 4,000 chance of it colliding with our planet, which is significant enough to keep experts on high alert.

3. 2022 YO1

• Diameter: Approximately 6 meters
• Impact date: December 17, 2024
• Probability of impact: 1 in 2,800

The 2022 YO1 asteroid, which was recently detected, is also being closely monitored. It may not be as large as the 2014 JV79, with a diameter of 6 meters, but it still poses a significant threat. There is a 1 in 2,800 chance of this asteroid colliding with Earth, which is worrying due to the potential for severe localized damage.

4. 2013 YB

• Diameter: Approximately 2.9 meters
• Impact date: December 23, 2024
• Probability of impact: 1 in 3,500

Asteroid 2013 YB is approximately 2.9 meters across and is the final threat on the list. Scientists predict a 1 in 3,500 chance of it impacting Earth. If it collides with Earth, it could devastate a small town. However, the long lead time allows scientists to develop potential deflection strategies.

The science of ‘non-zero impact probability.’

The term ‘non-zero impact probability’ indicates a measurable chance of these asteroids striking Earth, though the exact probability varies. ESA’s sophisticated tracking and modeling techniques allow for precise calculations, helping to predict and potentially mitigate these threats.

Potential consequences of an impact

If any of these asteroids were to collide with Earth, the consequences would be dire. The immediate impact would release immense energy, causing massive explosions, fires, and shockwaves. Secondary effects could include tsunamis, seismic activity, and severe atmospheric changes leading to drastic shifts in climate. The impact on human life, infrastructure, and the global ecosystem would be catastrophic.

What can be done?

To address this looming danger, international cooperation is paramount. Potential measures include:

• Deflection missions: Using spacecraft to alter the asteroid’s trajectory.
• Early warning systems: Enhancing detection capabilities for quicker response.
• Public preparedness: Educating the public on emergency protocols.

The scoop

The ESA’s warnings about these four asteroids underscore the precarious nature of our existence on this planet. While the probabilities might seem small, the potential for disaster is significant enough to warrant serious attention and action from the global community. As we advance our technological capabilities, we must focus on planetary defense to safeguard Earth from these extraterrestrial threats.